1、 Overview of China’s Commercial Vehicle Market
- In July 2023, the year-on-year growth of China’s commercial vehicle production and sales decreased month on month. Among the main types of commercial vehicles, the production and sales of passenger cars and trucks showed a double-digit decline compared to the previous month; Compared to the same period last year, the production and sales of passenger cars and trucks showed a double-digit rapid growth, with the growth rate of passenger car production and sales higher than that of trucks;
- In July, the production and sales of commercial vehicles in the Chinese market completed 286000 and 287000 units respectively, a decrease of 16.4% and 19.0% month on month, and a year-on-year increase of 17.0% and 16.8%, respectively;
- From January to July, the production and sales of commercial vehicles completed 2.253 million and 2.258 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 16.1%.
- According to IHS’s forecast data for the second quarter of 2023, the production of commercial vehicles is expected to be 3.79 million units in 2023, with a completion rate of 59.4% from January to July;
- The future production forecast shows an overall growth trend, with an expected production of 4.271 million vehicles by 2028. The annual compound growth rate from 2023 to 2028 is about 2.4%, a decrease of about 1.7% from the 4.1% predicted in the first quarter.
2、 Sales of Commercial Vehicles in China by Type
- In July, according to the types of commercial vehicles in the Chinese market, the sales of passenger cars and trucks were 39000 and 248000, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 30.1% and 15.0%; From the perspective of subdivision types, all types of passenger cars have shown a significant increase in double-digit ratio; Among trucks, various types of vehicles have shown varying degrees of growth, with micro trucks and heavy trucks showing significant increases of 29.1% and 35.6%, respectively;
- From January to July, the Chinese market saw a year-on-year increase of 23.2% in passenger cars to 258000 units, while freight cars increased by 15.2% to 1999000 units. The cumulative sales of various sub categories of passenger cars and freight cars also increased year-on-year.
- According to IHS’s forecast data for the second quarter of 2023, the production of commercial vehicles is expected to be approximately 3.79 million units in 2023, including approximately 507000 passenger cars and 3.283 million freight cars; From 2023 to 2028, the predicted production of passenger cars shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, reaching the maximum sales volume by 2026. The predicted production of freight cars shows a trend of increasing year by year, consistent with the first quarter forecast, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4% and 2.6%, respectively;
- In terms of subdivision types, light trucks account for half of the commercial vehicle market and are also the main growth point in the future. However, the production of micro trucks has decreased significantly year by year, with medium and large passenger cars growing the fastest, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.7% from 2023 to 2028; By 2028, the production of passenger cars and trucks is expected to be 544000 and 3.727 million, respectively.
3、 Ranking of Manufacturers in the Chinese Commercial Vehicle Market
- In July, from the perspective of group sales, the top 10 commercial vehicle sales in the Chinese market showed varying degrees of year-on-year growth, except for a slight decrease in sales of Great Wall Motors and FAW Group. Among them, China National Heavy Duty Truck and Changan Automobile increased by 54.3% and 20.1% respectively year-on-year; In terms of market share, the TOP 10 group accounts for 82.1% of the total sales of commercial vehicles in China; From January to July, compared to the same period last year, the cumulative sales of the top 10 group showed varying degrees of growth, except for Dongfeng Motors and Jiangling Motors; In terms of ranking, BAIC, SAIC, and Dongfeng firmly rank in the top three;
- From the perspective of vehicle factory sales, in July, the top 10 vehicle factories saw year-on-year growth in sales, with the exception of Great Wall Motors, SAIC Datong, and FAW Group. Among them, Beiqi Foton, Dongfeng Motors, and SAIC GM Wuling ranked in the top three; From January to July, SAIC MAXUS surpassed Shaanxi Automobile to enter the top 10, with a cumulative sales volume of 1.781 million vehicles, accounting for approximately 78.9% of China’s commercial vehicle sales.
- From the IHS forecast data for the second quarter of 2023, it can be seen that entering the top ten groups is consistent with the forecast for the first quarter of 2023, with FAW Group’s Super Changan Automobile rising by one place; Ranked by the average future production of the group, the top 10 commercial vehicle group is expected to produce approximately 3.372 million vehicles in 2023, accounting for 89.0% of the total commercial vehicle production, a decrease of one percentage point compared to the first quarter of 2023 forecast;
- From 2023 to 2028, the combined annual compound growth rate of TOP 10 Group is 1.3%. Except for SAIC Group, Changan Motors, and Great Wall Motors, all other groups are expected to see varying degrees of production growth.
4、 Export situation of China’s commercial vehicle market
- In July 2023, China exported 66000 commercial vehicles, a decrease of 4.9% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 36.2%;
- From January to July 2023, China exported 427000 commercial vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%.
